In another study, the growth rate in COVID deaths across 23 countries and all US states fell from a wide range of initially high levels to nearly zero in 20 to 30 days in each region, regardless of differences in the type or degree of lockdown imposed. An early study of mobility data found that people had already started to reduce time outside their homes before the government implemented restrictions. Plus, it overstated the benefits of a lockdown, attributing entirely to mandates the improvements caused by a combination of voluntary responses and mandates.Ĭhanges in individual behaviors generally precede government actions and can have a more significant impact. University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan found that private companies voluntarily implemented infection-prevention measures that lowered workplace transmission to levels below household rates.įailing to account for voluntary actions overstated the risks of the pandemic, creating a counterfactual that would never occur.

Employers had incentives to limit workplace infections to reduce absenteeism, lower insurance costs and enhance their reputation as safe places to work and shop. ‘Swedish Fauci’ still won’t budge on no-mask approach despite rising COVID-19 cases Instances of US hospitals reaching, let alone exceeding, capacity were rare. But hospitals voluntarily adapted to increasing COVID hospitalizations by limiting their elective procedures and redirecting assets. The Imperial College model also assumed that hospital and ICU capacity was fixed and unchangeable. In fact, Rt declines as people voluntarily avoid contact with others and as the number of recovered people no longer susceptible to infection grows. The model used a reproduction number, or Rt, the average number of secondary infections that each infected person produces in a susceptible population, that was too high and, contrary to standard epidemiological practice, didn’t vary over time. An empty Times Square while New York City was on lockdown for COVID-19 on March 29, 2020.

Most important, its predictions were based on the “unlikely” scenario that there would be no changes in individual behavior. The model grossly overpredicted deaths because of critical errors, including an unrealistically high infection-fatality rate. The authors recommended prolonged lockdowns until vaccines became available. In March 2020, it predicted an exponential growth of cases that would overwhelm ICU bed capacity by April and cause 2.2 million US deaths by July. The influential Imperial College of London model was typical. Epidemiologists failed to account for these voluntary changes in assessing what would happen without a lockdown. Yet health economists have long understood that people respond to incentives and alter their behaviors to avoid the risks and costs of infectious diseases. Stop the panicked fearmongering if we want to make the world betterĮnd legacy admissions, too, squad’s absurd attack on court and other commentaryĬDC boss’ utterly laughable exit warning on politicized ‘science’Īfter a year of start-and-stop public-health measures, more often guided by intuition than by science, studies are confirming what economists long suspected: The COVID-19 lockdowns were an expensive, unnecessary failure - because they failed to account for individual responses to the pandemic.Įpidemiologists viewed lockdowns as the logical response to a new virus to which humans lacked immunity and that could overwhelm hospitals and cause many deaths. Meet Jared Polis, a Democratic gov who actually cares about freedom

New lockdown august 2021